芒格主义 —— 查理·芒格智慧箴言 + 大道点评(上)



1. 芒格主义 —— 查理·芒格智慧箴言(下)


2. 沃伦·巴菲特永恒智慧名言集 —— 附大道点评


1. Most people are too fretful, they worry too much.Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.


(大道批注:看完这条可不要too aggressive哈。芒格本人曾经就因为用margin给自己带来过大麻烦。我这个朋友也喜欢用margin,非常危险。)

2. Using [a stock’s] volatility as a measure of risk is nuts. Risk to us is 1) the risk of permanent loss of capital, or 2) the risk of inadequate return. Some great businesses have very volatile returns – for example, See’s [a candy company owned.



3. I think that, every time you saw the word EBITDA [earnings], you should substitute the word “bullshit” earnings.



4. Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one. “It’s true,” replied Buffett. “If the value of a company doesn’t just scream out at you, it’s too close.”



5. If you buy something because it’s undervalued, then you have to think about selling it when it approaches your calculation of its intrinsic value. That’s hard. But if you buy a few great companies, then you can sit on your ass. That’s a good thing.



6. We bought a doomed textile mill [Berkshire Hathaway] and a California S&L [Wesco] just before a calamity. Both were bought at a discount to liquidation value.

我们买过一个纺织厂(Berkshire Hathaway)和一个加州的存贷行(Wesco),这俩后来都带来了灾难。但是我们买的时候,价格都比清算价值打折还低。


7. For society, the Internet is wonderful, but for capitalists, it will be a net negative. It will increase efficiency, but lots of things increase efficiency without increasing profits. It is way more likely to make American businesses less profitable than more profitable. This is perfectly obvious, but very little understood.


(大道批注:我也这么认为:internet 实际上是就业杀手,需要很多年才能消化。但是,如果能看懂这个变化则会非常有收获。你把所有投入互联网的投资加起来计算回报再减去同时由于互联网兴起造成的其他行业的亏损,就明白芒格讲的是什么意思了。巴菲特和芒格早就讲过,他们不喜欢变化,但如果你能看懂这些变化,你将赚大钱。)

8. Virtually every investment expert’s public assessment is that he is above average, no matter what is the evidence to the contrary.



9. Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.



10. Warren spends 70 hours a week thinking about investing.


11. People calculate too much and think too little.



12. Whenever you think something or some person is ruining your life, it’s you. A victimization mentality is so debilitating.



13. The tax code gives you an enormous advantage if you can find some things you can just sit with.



14. If you’re going to buy something which compounds for 30 years at 15% per annum and you pay one 35% tax at the very end, the way that works out is that after taxes, you keep 13.3% per annum. In contrast, if you bought the same investment, but had to pay taxes every year of 35% out of the 15% that you earned, then your return would be 15% minus 35% of 15%—or only 9.75% per year compounded. So the difference there is over 3.5%. And what 3.5% does to the numbers over long holding periods like 30 years is truly eye-opening…



15. The number one idea, is to view a stock as an ownership of the business [and] to judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for more value in terms of discounted future cash flow than you’re paying for. Move only when you have an advantage. It’s very basic. You have to understand the odds and have the discipline to bet only when the odds are in your favor.



16. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke. You’ve made an enormous commitment to something.You’ve poured effort and money in. And the more you put in, the more that the whole consistency principle makes you think,” Now it has to work. If I put in just a little more, then it ’all work…. People go broke that way —because they can ’t stop,rethink,and say,’ I can afford to write this one off and live to fight again. I don’t have to pursue this thing as an obsession —in a way that will break me.”

人们破产的常见原因是不能控制心理上的纠结。你花了这么多心血、这么多金钱,花的越多,就越容易这么想:“估计快成了,再多花一点儿,就能成了……” 人们就是这么破产的----因为他们就是不肯停下来想想:“之前投入的就算没了呗,我承受得起,我还可以重新振作。我不需要为这件事情沉迷不误,这可能会毁了我的。”


17. In terms of business mistakes that I’ve seen over a long lifetime, I would say that trying to minimize taxes too much is one of the great standard causes of really dumb mistakes. I see terrible mistakes from people being overly motivated by tax considerations. Warren and I personally don’t drill oil wells. We pay our taxes. And we’ve done pretty well, so far. Anytime somebody offers you a tax shelter from here on in life, my advice would be don’t buy it.



18. I believe that we are at or near the apex of a great civilization….In 50-100 years, if we’re a poor third to some countries in Asia, I wouldn’t be surprised. If I had to bet, the part of the world that will do best will be Asia.



19. To some extent, stocks are like Rembrandts. They sell based on what they’ve sold in the past. Bonds are much more rational. No-one thinks a bond’s value will soar to the moon. Imagine if every pension fund in America bought Rembrandts. Their value would go up and they would create their own constituency.



20. It’s crazy to assume that what’s happening in Argentina and Japan is inconceivable here.



21. REITs are way more suitable for individual shareholders than for corporate shareholders. And Warren has enough residue from his old cigar-butt personality that when people became disenchanted with the REITs and the market price went down to maybe a 20% discount from what the companies could be liquidated for, he bought a few shares with his personal money. So it’s nice that Warren has a few private assets with which to pick up cigar butts in memory of old times – if that’s what keeps him amused.



22. Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence. Often, they just run aground in the more difficult voyages they choose, relying on their self-appraisals that they have superior talents and methods.



23. The whole concept of the house advantage is an interesting one in modern money management. The terms of the managers of the private partnerships look a lot like the take of the croupier at Monte Carlo, only greater.



24. There are always people who will be better at some thing than you are.You have to learn to be a follower before you become a leader.


(大道批注:I have nothing to add.)

25. We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side. If you can’t state arguments against what you believe better than your detractors, you don’t know enough.


(大道批注:呵呵,希望不是碰到猪一样的对手哈。有点逆向思维的意思?大概是认为人应该Open Mind才能有进步的意思吧。)

26. I remember the $0.05 hamburger and a $0.40-per-hour minimum wage, so I’ve seen a tremendous amount of inflation in my lifetime. Did it ruin the investment climate? I think not.



27. A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid: early death, a bad marriage, etc.



28. There are two types of mistakes: 1) doing nothing[We saw it, but didn’t act on it]; what Warren calls “sucking my thumb” and 2) buying with an eyedropper things we should be buying a lot of.



29. Checklist routines avoid a lot of errors. You should have all of this elementary wisdom, and you should go through a mental checklist in order to use it. There is no other procedure that will work as well.



30. Litigation is notoriously time-consuming, inefficient, costly and unpredictable.


31. Finding a single investment that will return 20% per year for 40 years tends to happen only in dreamland. In the real world, you uncover an opportunity, and then you compare other opportunities with that. And you only invest in the most attractive opportunities. That’s your opportunity cost. That’s what you learn in freshman economics. The game hasn’t changed at all. That’s why Modern Portfolio Theory is so asinine.



32. The more hard lessons you can learn vicariously rather than through your own hard experience, the better. Well, some of our success we predicted and some of it was fortuitous.



33. The general assumption is that it must be easy to sit behind a desk and people will bring in one good opportunity after another — this was the attitude in venture capital until a few years ago. This was not the case at all for us — we scrounged around for companies to buy. For 20 years, we didn’t buy more than one or two per year. …It’s fair to say that we were rooting around. There were no commissioned salesmen. Anytime you sit there waiting for a deal to come by, you’re in a very dangerous seat.



34. Our biggest mistakes, were things we didn’t do, companies we didn’t buy.



35. You can progress only when you learn the method of learning.



36. It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.



37. Berkshire’s past record has been almost ridiculous. If Berkshire had used even half the leverage of, say, Rupert Murdoch, it would be five times its current size.



38. It took us months of buying all the Coke stock we could to accumulate $1 billion worth — equal to 7% of the company. It’s very hard to accumulate major positions.



39. All large aggregations of capital eventually find it hell on earth to grow and thus find a lower rate of return.



40. If you have only a little capital and are young today, there are fewer opportunities than when I was young. Back then, we had just come out of a depression. Capitalism was a bad word. There had been abuses in the 1920s. A joke going around then was the guy who said, ‘I bought stock for my old age and it worked — in six months, I feel like an old man!’ “It’s tougher for you, but that doesn’t mean you won’t do well — it just may take more time. But what the heck, you may live longer.



41. Regarding the demographic trend called Baby Boomers, it’s peanuts compared to the trend of economic growth.? Over the last century, [our] GNP is up seven times.? This was not caused by Baby Boomers, but by the general success of capitalism and the march of technology.? Those trends were so favorable that little blips in the birth rate were not that significant.??We can keep social peace as long as GNP rises 3% annually – this can pay for spending by politicians.? If we ever got to stasis [no growth], then with all the promises, you’d get real tensions between the generations.? The Baby Boomers would exacerbate it, but the real cause would be lack of growth.



42. Practically everybody overweighs the stuff that can be numbered, because it yields to the statistical techniques they’re taught in academia, and doesn’t mix in the hard-to-measure stuff that may be more important. That is a mistake I’ve tried all my life to avoid, and I have no regrets for having done that.



43. You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines, and use them routinely — all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model — economics, for example — and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: to the man with a hammer, the world looks like a nail. This is a dumb way of handling problems.

你应该对各种学科的各种思维都有所理解,并且经常使用它们,或者它们的全部,而不是某几个。大部分人都熟练于使用某一个单一的模型,比如经济学模型,去解决所有的问题。应了一句老话:“拿着锤子的木匠,看书上的字儿就觉着像钉子。” 这是一种很白痴的做事方法。


44. The whole concept of dividing it up into ‘value’ and ‘growth’ strikes me as twaddle. It’s convenient for a bunch of pension fund consultants to get fees prattling about and a way for one advisor to distinguish himself from another. But, to me, all intelligent investing is value investing.



45. In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time – none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads, at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out.



46. We read a lot? I don’t know anyone who’s wise who doesn’t read a lot.? But that’s not enough: You have to have a temperament to grab ideas and do sensible things.? Most people don’t grab the right ideas or don’t know what to do with them.



47. We get these questions a lot from the enterprising young. It’s a very intelligent question: You look at some old guy who’s rich and you ask, ‘How can I become like you, except faster?


(大道批注:“except faster”就是如果不能更快的话。我觉得怎么才能迅速地成为你呢?翻得很好哈。我也经常碰到类似的问题,而且潜台词往往是我比你还聪明,所以我应该可以更快,只要告诉我秘诀就行了。其实秘诀很简单,把巴菲特说过的所有东西都看20遍,如果一遍看不懂的话,再悟20年,就知道自己有没有可能做好了,已经懂的例外。)

48. It takes almost no capital to open a new See’s candy store. We’re drowning in capital of our own that has almost no cost. It would be crazy to franchise stores like some capital-starved pancake house. We like owning our own stores as a matter of quality control.



49. It’s dangerous to short stocks.



50. Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.



51. It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then at have it go from X to 3X and and have the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls. Why would you want to go within hailing distance of that?



52. The cost of being a publicly traded stock has gone way, way up. It doesn’t make sense for a little company to be public anymore. A lot of little companies are going private to be rid of these burdensome requirements?



53. Well the open-outcry auction is just made to turn the brain into mush: you’ve got social proof, the other guy is bidding, you get reciprocation tendency, you get deprival super-reaction syndrome, the thing is going away… I mean it just absolutely is designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior.



54. The problem with closed bid auctions is that they are frequently won by people making a technical mistake, as in the case with Shell paying double for Belridge Oil. You can’t pay double the losing bid in an open outcry auction.



55. We’re partial to putting out large amounts of money where we won’t have to make another decision.



56. Understanding how to be a good investor makes you a better business manager and vice versa.



57. What’s fascinating . . .is that you could now have a business that might have been selling for $10 billion where the business itself could probably not have borrowed even $100 million. But the owners of that business, because its public, could borrow many billions of dollars on their little pieces of paper- because they had these market valuations. But as a private business, the company itself couldn’t borrow even 1/20th of what the individuals could borrow.



58. I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest – sometimes not even the most diligent. But they are learning machines; they go to bed every night a little wiser than when they got up. And, boy, does that habit help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.



59. The basic concept of value to a private owner and being motivated when you’re buying and selling securities by reference to intrinsic value instead of price momentum – I don’t think that will ever be outdated.



60. Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.



61. Well, the questioner came from Singapore which has perhaps the best economic record in the history of any developing economy and therefore he referred to 15% per annum as modest. It’s not modest–it’s arrogant. Only someone from Singapore would call it modest.



62. I don’t spend much time, regretting the past, once I’ve taken my lesson from it. I don’t dwell on it.



63. If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we’d have a pretty average record. It wasn’t hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounce on them with vigor.



64. We just throw some decisions into the ‘too hard’ file and go onto the others.



65. Forgetting your mistakes is a terrible error if you are trying to improve your cognition.


(大道批注:想起小偷被抓以后,满脑子都是如何改进偷技的想法的那个故事。所以这里的错误有两种性质的:1.做了错的事情,以后不能再做,然后放上Stop Doing List。2. 在做对的事情上犯了错误,这个不可避免,但可以通过学习改进。那个小偷犯的是第一个错,但用的是第二个的改进办法,会更糟的。)

66. In the 1930s, there as a stretch here you could borrow more against the real estate than you could sell it for. I think that’s what’s going on in today’s private-equity world.



67. Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.



68. A lot of opportunities in life tend to last a short while, due to some temporary inefficiency… For each of us, really good investment opportunities aren’t going to come along too often and won’t last too long, so you’ve got to be ready to act and have a prepared mind.


(大道批注:Nothing to add。)

69. Everywhere there is a large commission, there is a high probability of a ripoff.



70. Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.



71. Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it.



72. We try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric.


73. Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much different than a six percent return – even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.



74. Just as a man working with his tools should know its limitations, a man working with his cognitive apparatus must know its limitations.







林中小鹿2019-11-13 18:34


未来世界20002019-11-11 22:08

snowcity992019-11-11 17:02

芒格主义,大道点评 上

腹里虚2019-11-09 15:48

80. I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”

南山牧雪人2019-11-09 12:41